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Friday Market Update for the Week of August 20th 2021

Happy Friday, Brian Manning here with the weekly update. We got all kinds of stuff to talk about this week. So, Monday this week actually brings us back to talking about some information last week. So we had 10 fed voting members last week sharing their opinions on tapering, starting to see everyone kind of coming in line with wanting to taper their bond buying purchase program. It’s called quantitative easing. Right now the Federal Reserve is purchasing mortgage backed securities and US Treasuries. I don’t know when the announcement is going to come out but if I had to guess I would say, Jackson Hole. So the Federal Reserve does a big meeting at the end of every September. Jerome Powell, the president of Federal Reserve will do a press conference at the end of it. So if they were going to release something in regards to tapering, that would probably be the spot, we’ll have to wait and see. But the question really is, is it a big deal? The reason why I say that is because the Federal Reserve right now, even though they’re actively purchasing mortgage backed securities and US Treasuries, they also have a very large balance sheet. And if we look at mortgages, for example, they’re still reinvesting their mortgages. What I mean by that is that when they have these mortgage backed securities on their balance sheets, when someone sells a home and their mortgage gets paid off, or they refinance and their mortgage gets paid off, the Federal Reserve is taking that money through the pay off in reinvesting and still purchasing more mortgage backed securities. So even if they taper, their active purchases and mortgage backed securities, you’re still going to see a tremendous amount of reinvestments taking place, which is going to have a continual positive impact on mortgage rates.

We also got some analysis on July employment. So when looking at job creations for the month of July, we had 943,000. But 221,000 of those jobs that were created in the month of July was actually teachers going back to work. So perhaps unfortunately, the July employment report not looking as rosy as it could. Right now in the US, we have 10 million job openings. And we have 12 million people on some version of unemployment. So the job market still needs a lot of help. There’s still a lot of positions to be filled out there. So I’m not really quite sure. Unfortunately, the job report wasn’t as rosy as it could be Wednesday this week, we got housing starts, so this is starts for new construction, and that was down 7%. If you watched the news, you look at the media, you know, they just blow this out of proportion, you know, so here’s just some info to look at. So in 2006, builders had 2 million homes for sale. Right? So there’s inventory of 2 million homes and demand was at half. Right now what we’re in is completely different. We’ll talk a little bit more about that in a second. So seeing housing starts down a little bit, I’m not really too worried about it.

Today, we get existing home sales. Existing home sales, also down a little bit. You know, continual bubble talk in the news. Is it legit? I don’t know. Let’s look at some more numbers. So 2007. At this time in 2007, there was 3.7 million homes for sale. Of that, 2 million of them or so were new construction. So we had 3.7 million homes for sale. Right now, we have 1.2 million homes for sale in the US. So there’s a 2.5 million home inventory difference between right now in 2021 and where we were in 2007. Also, if you look at households, household creations from 2007 to today are different, and we have 12 million more households in the United States that could potentially be homebuyers, compared to where we were in 2007. So purely if we’re just looking at supply and demand, we are definitely not what I would say in bubble territory. Also, we have some builders that have stopped taking on new orders. Very large national builders have announced that they’re not taking on new orders and they just need to work through the backlog of people that they’re under contract for it and build out the houses that they have.

We also got Redfin today. So Redfin today announcing that across the nation, listed homes days on market for the month of July is 15 days. That’s incredible. That means that if another home did not go in the market in 15 days, all of the inventory in United States would be absorbed. Yes, this is up but it’s only up by one day. In the month of June, days on market was only 14 days. Also Redfin telling us today that 60% of all transactions right now are multiple offer bidding wars and selling above list price.  So you have demand high, you have inventory compared to 2007 down 2.5 million homes. If you just purely look at the economics of supply and demand right there it would tell you that we’re probably not in danger of bubble territory, but that’s just my opinion. You can interpret all that for yourself.

I’m around all day I’m around all weekend. If you have any questions, let me know. If you need a pre-approval this weekend, call me on my cell phone, text me. I can help you buy a home, refinance a home in Florida, Colorado, California, Arizona. We’re going to start adding in some more states as well but any of those states, you got any questions – call me, I’d love to help you. Happy Friday. Have a great day.

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