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Friday Market Update for the Week of December 3rd 2021

Happy Friday, Brian Manning here with the weekly update. Let’s see. So Monday of this week, we had pending home sales. This was for the month of October. So this is new contract signed, that was up 7.5%. So still great to see continual strength in the housing market. Tuesday of this week we had Case Shiller feedback. So Case Shiller is kind of like the gold standard of housing market data. On a month over month basis, Case Shiller said values were up 1%. This for the month of September. On a year over year basis, values we’re up 19.5%. So just unbelievable strength and appreciation for what we’ve seen in the housing market. We also got feedback from the FHFA. So FHFA tells us about housing appreciation for homes across the country that have conventional mortgages attached to them.
So also for the month of September, FHFA said homes appreciated at 18.5%. So very consistent in the reports that we’re seeing there from Case Shiller and the FHFA.

Wednesday of this week, we had Jerome Powell speaking, and for the first time we had Jerome Powell remove the word transitory out of his inflation comments, and finally say that inflation is persistent and here to stay for a little while. So, you know, I don’t know what the outcome is going to be, at some point in time, it’s going to have a potentially quicker impact on their tapering. It’s going to have an impact on their Fed rate hike stance, we’ll have to see what happens coming into 2022 but I don’t know why it` took the Federal Reserve so long to finally realize that inflation is not going anywhere right now. But there we go. We finally got it. Wednesday of this week, we got ADP. I can’t believe it’s another new month already. First week of every month, we get employment reports. So the first Wednesday, we get ADP. The first Friday, we get the BLS. So ADP said that for the month of November, we had 534,000 new jobs created. So that was really on line with exactly what expectations were for new job growth in the month of November.

 

Thursday was a pretty quiet news day, and then today, like I said a second ago, first Friday of every month, we get the BLS report. So BLS is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So the initial report we got from the BLS was that there was an expectation of 510,000 new jobs be created in the month of November, the BLS came out and said: Oh, no, only 210,000 new jobs were created. Then we get the household survey a little while after that and the household survey said: Okay, well, for the month of November, we had 1.136 million jobs created in the month of November, that’s a giant disconnect. So let’s look at the differences.

So the BLS, part of their component, because it’s all, you know, data predicted based, they look at what’s called the birth-death survey.So the BLS says, okay, based on a company that was created in the month of November, for the company that was created and the job sector that they’re in, on average, this amount of new jobs would be hired by that company. And then they look at the death of a company. They say, okay, this company went out of business. Based on the sector that it’s in, X amount of jobs would be associated with that company based on the job sector that they’re in. So that’s how many jobs we lose. So that’s how you get the birth and death ratio. So when you just look at companies that were created and companies that went out of business, they’re saying 210,000 new jobs were created. But then when you look at the household survey, this is household phone calls across the  United States, there’s 1.136 million jobs created. So that’s a giant disconnect. If we look at unemployment rate, and this is also based on the household survey as well, unemployment went from 4.6% to 4.2%. So clearly, if you just look at the government data, we don’t really know what’s going on, right? So I would say, if we split it in the middle, if ADP was correct, you’re probably going to see about 500,000 or so jobs created for the month of November which is really good, it’s really great to see but it’s kind of crazy to see the incongruencies of government data here with employment reports, it’s just ridiculous.

I’m around all weekend. If you have any questions, let me know. I’d love to help you in any way we can. If you want to talk about pre approvals, if you want to go through a strategic buyer consultation, call me on my cell phone, text me. I’m always available. Happy Friday. Have a great day.

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