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Friday Market Update for the Week of December 4th

Happy Friday, Brian Manning here with the weekly update. Let’s get right to it, so Monday of this week, we got Pending Home Sales. So on a month-over-month basis Pending Home Sales were down 1% but on a year-over-year basis Pending Home Sales are up 20% right now which is really unbelievable and it’s pretty staggering, I would say that probably the reason why we saw a 1% decline on a month-over-month basis is because inventory, depending on where you look is down anywhere from 19% to 20%. So we have inventory at all time lows, substantial amount of buyers that are out there, you’re just going to see a reduction every so often in Pending Home Sales because there’s just not enough inventory. Every buyer I talk to every realtor I talk to their primary complaint right now is that they can’t find a house and there’s just not much out there. So, Pending Home Sales down a little bit.

 

 

Wednesday of this week and the first Wednesday of every month, we always get unemployment reports, so Wednesday of this week we got ADP. ADP is the largest provider of private payrolls. There was an expectation of 420,000 new jobs created for the month of November, ADP said we got 307,000 so that was a miss report which was kind of widely expected and Thursday this week, we got unemployment claims. So unemployment was down 560,000 people, so that’s for continual claims. The challenge there though and why it potentially is a little misleading is because unemployment only runs for 26 weeks and we’re starting to see people that are running out or they’re hitting the expiration of their unemployment, so we’re seeing more and more people dropping off continual claims and this was 560,000 people, so potentially not for all the right reasons.

Today, the first Friday of every month, we always get the BLS that’s the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report and it was really widely expected, just like ADP that it was not going to be a strong report. So for the month of November there was an expectation of 500,000 new jobs to be created and we got 245,000 new jobs created, so the way they do this is it’s looked at what’s called the birth-death ratio. So they look at how many businesses were created and how many businesses died and when you look at businesses created versus businesses that died what would be the normal addition or subtraction of jobs based on new companies created. Unfortunately, there’s a lot of businesses going under right now. So when you see so many businesses going under that’s going to have an impact on the new employment and new hiring. The other way employment is looked at is what’s called a household survey. That’s when they call 60,000-70,000 households across the US and the household survey showed that not was there a job additions, but there was actually 74,000 job losses for the month of November, so even worse of a report, so you know, when you’re in the US economy and you have 20 million people that lost their jobs and we’re only back to 10 million right now, it’s still a struggle in the labor markets and we’re still nowhere near getting over this hump yet unfortunately.

Stocks though in this situation from today are rallying. And most people would look at that and they’d say, “Well, why the heck is the stock market going up and why are stocks rallying if it’s such a bad employment report?” And the thing is that the report is probably so bad that the stock market probably has more hope now that there’s more pressure on a stimulus package being created so that they can get something through congress. So we’ll have to wait and see what happens, there has not been much luck on a stimulus package lately but you know, that’s why stocks are rallying today so we’ll have to wait and see. Overall this week, mortgage rates are unchanged we saw them improve a little bit by 1/8% and worsen a little bit today by about 1/8% but we really consider 1/8% or 1/4% incremental changes relatively unchanged so mortgage rates are still looking really good.

I’m around all weekend, if you have any questions, let me know. If you want to get a pre-approval done, call me or text me, if you want to run some numbers, reach out to me at any time. Happy Friday, hope you’re having a great day.

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