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Friday Market Update for the Week of January 15th

Happy Friday, Brian Manning here with the weekly update. Let’s get right to it. So last week, we just saw mortgage rates steadily increase all week long and it was nothing crazy, but we did see an increase of rates last week and that kind of stopped in its tracks this week, we’ll talk a little bit about that in just a minute. Monday of this week was a quiet news day, nothing to report there. Tuesday was quiet as well. Wednesday of this week, there was a bond auction. This was a bond auction of 10 year treasuries.And the yield on the 10 year treasuries increased rather quickly especially over the last week or so. So, if there was a large appetite for bond-buying as there was in this auction it would’ve shown that bonds were happy with the yields that they were receiving. So, this bond auction was great as in a tremendous amount of buyers in this bond auction and that was actually the catalyst of what stopped mortgage rates from going up this week.

 

So this week, we saw mortgage rates kind-of hold in their track and actually over the last day or so, mortgage rates got a little bit better. So good to see that we regained some ground there from what we had lost last week. Wednesday of this week, we also got CPI. That’s the Consumer Price Index, it’s probably one of our favorite gauges for inflation. On a month-over-month basis the CPI was up 1/10th of a percent.And on a year-over-year basis CPI was up 1.6%. o we’re still holding pretty steady on inflation. Also on a year-over-year basis we see that rents are increasing 2.3%. So down a tad from prior reports, but still pretty consistent gains on rents increasing.

Thursday of this week, we got initial jobless claims and we get this every single Thursday. This Thursday, we had 965,000 new people reported that had filed for new unemployment claims. Just to give you some color on this, in pre-COVID, we were seeing an average of 200,000 new employment claims a week and we’re pushing almost a million, so certainly US economy is still struggling here with employment and probably everyone just can’t think that a vaccine can come quick enough to really put some ease on the pressure in the employment market here. Also Thursday of this week, we got president elect, Joe Biden, and his announcement of a stimulus plan. $2 trillion stimulus plan and I just want to run through a couple key points here really quick. So, first, there will be an additional $1400 direct payment. Then we also have unemployment insurance going from $300 to $400 a month and that gets extended through September. We also have pandemic unemployment assistance so this is an add-on that you can apply for after you’ve exhausted your traditional unemployment benefits. So, there was an extension of the PUA through September. We have about $25 billion that would go towards helping renters that are unable to pay their rents. There’s also a moratorium on evictions and foreclosures that would go through September of this year, there’s also ability for people with a mortgage to file for forbearance through September of this year as well. So we’ll have to wait and see what happens, but this is the plan. At least it’s in place, hopefully or potentially it will get pushed through. We’ll have to wait and see but at least there’s some kind of action taking place to to help us here in the US economy.

Also today, we got the Cass Freight Shipping Index. So Cass Freight Shipping Index, we’ve talked about it a bunch in the past, this is an index that measures the movement of goods around the US. So if you buy something from Amazon, for example, and that iPhone case that you bought gets shipped from Texas to Colorado that’s part of the Cass Freight Shipping Index. So it’s looking at goods that are moving around the United States. So the Cass Freight Shipping Index on a month-over-month basis was up 6.7%. So that’s good, that means that there’s more purchase taking place, the economy is starting to recover and you’re seeing more goods moving around the US. But the expenditure was up from 5.6% to 13% so we’re seeing the cost of moving goods around the United States is costing more. The challenge is, this potentially leads to inflation in the future because as sellers are incurring higher costs for moving goods from point A to point B they have to put those costs some place, so they typically put those costs onto us as consumers. So, something we’re going to want to watch closely we’ve talked about this in the past inflation is the enemy of interest rates. Right now, we’re still looking amazing but if we start to see pressures of inflation here in future, it is going to have a negative impact on interest rates.

I’m around all weekend, if you have any questions, let me know. I’d love to help you in any way I can. If you want to get pre-approved over the weekend, call me on my cell phone, text me. If you’re a realtor and needs a revised pre-approval, or if you have questions about numbers, call me, text me. I’d love to help you in any way I can. Happy Friday, have a great day.

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