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Friday Market Update for the Week of July 9th 2021

Happy Friday, Brian Manning here with the weekly update. Let’s see. So Monday was a… Monday was a holiday. We had the 4th of July weekend, markets were closed on Monday. So nothing to report there, overall, this is actually a relatively quiet news week, Tuesday, we got CoreLogic. So CoreLogic giving us housing appreciation info. So there’s really two primary providers on data for housing appreciation, Case Shiller and CoreLogic. CoreLogic came back and said for the month of May, on a year over year basis, home appreciation was up 15.4%. On a month over month basis up 2.3%. I mean, this is just a crazy number, I wouldn’t mind seeing it come down a little bit, certainly 15.4% year over year is not sustainable. Yes, the housing market is hot right now. But you know, if we ever got down to that 4%, 5%, 6% range, it’d probably a little bit better for us and more sustainable.

There’s always a lot of talk right now about what’s going on in the market, bubbles, problems, etc. But we’re still in a situation where inventories are at record lows, and the amount of buyers out there are at record highs. So just purely looking at supply and demand right now, that’s really what’s pushing the housing appreciation. And I still think we’re probably going to run the rest of this year in a really strong housing market.

Also just talking a little bit about interest rates and inflation, and what’s going on because inflation is really the enemy of interest rates. And we’ve seen some very recent inflationary pressures of what’s going on. But probably we’re going to see here in the near future is that as COVID starts to kind of subside, and calm down, and I know that there’s Delta variants, and there’s always unknowns, but overall around the world, as we start to see a little bit of the calming effect from COVID, we’re going to start to see more and more ability with foreign imports and foreign imports are cheaper than domestic products. So as we start to see COVID kind of calm down, supply chains slowly reopen back up, more imports of foreign products, that’s going to have a little bit of easing on inflation, which is good for us, because that’s going to help interest rates stay low.

My second thing is we still have a substantial amount of people that are on unemployment, and a lot of people probably riding out this additional unemployment through September of this year. And chances are, when we see the additional unemployment go away, we’re going to start to see more of these 9 million job openings get filled as well, so I think over time, yes, we’re going to see some inflationary items that do stick, but overall, we might see, kind of a cooling which is going to be positive for us as far as interest rates are concerned.

A lot of people ask us, well, as far as what is the farther outlook for interest rates looking like right now? I would say over time, rates are at rock bottom right now. They’re looking phenomenal. And we’re just locking people in, still in record lows as, you know, we’re probably going to see rates slowly, I don’t know when it will start, but slowly increase very gradually over the next year or so. But also, it’s kind of anticipated that we might see some recessionary pressures in 2022-2023. Not a crazy recession. Nothing like what we saw in 2008, I wouldn’t say, but we might see some recessionary pressures. So we also anticipate that we might see rates come back down in a year or two, so the reason why I bring this up is because if you’re buying a home or refinancing right now, I wouldn’t be paying anything in points, so I’d be looking at zero point loans, because there’s really a great chance that the mortgage you’re getting into right now, whether it’s a purchase or refinance, you may be able to refinance in a year or two down to a lower rate, and I will certainly be keeping that strategy in mind.

I’m always available, I’m around all weekend. If you have any questions, let me know. If you need to revised pre-approval or a brand new pre-approval, call me on my cell phone, text me, I’d love to help you any way I can. Happy Friday. Have a great day.

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