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Friday Market Update for the Week of October 22nd 2021

Happy Friday, Brian Manning here with the weekly update. So Monday this week we had global yields on the rise. Certainly inflationary pressures around the world are going to impact global yields as well which have an impact on rates around the world. Tuesday this week, we got homebuilder sentiment. So homebuilder sentiment moved up to 80. So this is on a scale of 1 to 100. And really, anything above 50 is considered expansion. So still seeing a pretty hot new construction market. Also, buyer traffic, so this is new buyers coming through, new construction sites was up as well.

Thursday this week, we had Atlanta Fed president talking about Q3 GDP. So originally back in August, their expectation was that Q3 GDP would be up 6%. And now there’s a revision saying that they think Q3 GDP is going to be up a half a percent, 0.5%. So keep in mind that if you have negative GDP two quarters in a row, technically that means a recession, I won’t be surprised if we start to see recessionary pressures moving into the beginning of 2023. Not necessarily a bad thing, because mortgage rates usually always go down when there’s a recession. So something to keep an eye on, but watch out for GDP, because certainly seeing some decline in numbers there.

We also got existing home sales. This is for the month of September. On a month over month basis, existing home sales were up 7%. So unbelievable, and still wonderful to see just a very robust housing market. Also available inventory right now is at 1.2, 7 million units. I certainly hear a lot of talk about a bubble, but I’ll give you some comparison. We have 1.2 7 million units for sale in the US. In 2007, there were 3.7 million homes available in the US at the same exact time. So certainly when you see 2 million discrepancy in homes for sale now versus 2007, completely different marketplace. Days on market is at 17. So still home selling just exceptionally fast.

One thing I want to bring up is a new construction program that we have, we can do a long term rate lock. So if you’re looking at buying a new construction home, we can now lock your loan for up to 365 days. If you have any questions here, let me know. And I just want to take a look at the charts here because this is something that’s really important. So what I have up right now is just the yield on the 10 year treasury and mortgage rates will usually generally follow suit in the direction of what the yield of the 10 year treasury is doing. So really, I would say from about September 15th through today, we’ve just kind of seen a real steady incline as far as the yields are concerned. Certainly the pattern in the trend right now is an upward rise as far as yields are going to be concerned, you know, now we have a new top here at 1.7% for the yield on the 10 year treasury, which is crazy that we haven’t seen that for quite some time now. So it would be interesting to see if this is really a ceiling of resistance and if we’re going to see a little bit of calming down in the yield on the 10 year treasury. If we do it’s positive for mortgage rates. But this right here means that we’ve kind of seen a very slow, minimal steady increase over rising mortgage rates from the beginning to middle of September through today. It’s not crazy, we’re still locking rates at phenomenal numbers right now. But we have definitely seen a very slow, steady increase in rates.

And we just need to keep an eye on the yield here for the 10 year treasury because if it continues to go up, you know, it just means that mortgage rates are going to continue to rise. So you know I would say looking into next year, I won’t be surprised if we start seeing rates in the mid to higher threes. I don’t think we’re going to hit 4% but I’m definitely thinking moving into next year and even towards the end of next year we’re going to see that 3.5%-3.75%. 30 year fixed rate, so I have to keep an eye on this and see what happens but the yield on that 10 year treasury is something we want to watch closely. I’m around all weekend. If you have any questions let me know. I would love to help you in any way I can. If you have any questions on this new construction rate lock program, I can give you the details. Just give me a call. Happy Friday. Have a great day.

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