Friday Market Update: January 14th 2022 with BRIAN MANNING

Happy Friday, Brian Manning here with the weekly update. I haven’t done this for a couple of weeks now. Pretty pumped to be back at it again today here in 2022. Let’s see what we got. So, Monday and Tuesday of this week, we’re relatively quiet news day. Not much to talk about there, but Wednesdays, we got CPI. So, CPI is the consumer price index. It is a gauge of inflation. I would say it’s probably what we think of as the most accurate gauge of inflation. The Federal Reserve, as we talked about before, looks at the PCE. That’s the personal consumption expenditure, but we really think CPI is more accurate. So, CPI is inclusive of out-of-pocket housing and out of pocket medical expenses. And as we all know, most people here in the United States have some sort of cost associated with out-of-pocket housing and medical expenses. So, CPI on a month over month basis for the month of December was up 5.5% and on a year over year basis was up 7%. This is kind of a ridiculous number, highest inflationary numbers in 40 years. The crazy thing is that the markets didn’t even really react to this. And usually, inflationary numbers like this would be crushing into the marketplace. But I really wonder if markets are already digesting this information, looking forward to what the Federal Reserve is going to do, anticipating rate hikes coming soon to combat inflation. So, they really didn’t freak out over this, but really high numbers that didn’t seem to have much of an impact in the market.

Also, this week we got on Wednesday some feedback from Zillow and Pulsenomics so they do a survey every year of the top 100 economists across the country. General consensus is that average appreciation in the US for the year of 2022 in the housing market will be at 7%. Certainly, areas are regional. You might see higher appreciation in Boulder, Denver than you do in other markets, but the national average is looking closer to 7%. I think we might see a little bit higher here. So, for sure, incredible appreciation and a very strong housing market coming into the year of 2022.

Thursdays, we got PPI. PPI stands for the producer price index. So, this measures inflation at the wholesale level. So, the core rate in the month of December was up a half a percent. On a year over year basis, the PPI number went from being up 7.7% to 8.3%. So, you’re seeing inflation on the wholesale level. You’re seeing inflation on the retail level. Again, we look at the core rate for PPI because it strips out volatile items like pre owned cars. So just inflationary pressures everywhere. And then today we got retail sales. So, retail sales are for the month of December. Retail sales, the core rate were down 3.1% for the month of December. So usually, you see them up in the month of December.  So, it’s hard to tell if consumers in December were just feeling the inflationary pressures and the cost of good increasing so they spent less. Maybe Omicron and Covid were involved in people spending less. It’s hard to tell. But nevertheless, they were down for the month of December.

If you want to learn more about what we’re thinking in the markets in 2022, what our predictions are for, where interest rates are going to go, why interest rates are going to be impacted, how they’re going to be impacted, what is the Federal Reserve potentially going to do when the Federal Reserve does make moves which are going to be extremely pivotal and important in the year 2022, how are they going to affect all of us in the room? How are they going to affect interest rates if the Fed raises rates? What kind of impact does that have on mortgage rates? It’s kind of counterintuitive. But I’m going to go through and explain everything and give you our prediction for 2022. So, if you’re interested in learning about where we think the markets are going to go this year on next Wednesday, January 19 at 09:00 a.m. We are doing a market prediction. It’s going to be done via Zoom. It will take an hour or less. The link to register for that is in this email. We’d love to have you there. It’s going to be extremely informative. I’ve done a ton of research to put the information together that’s going to be presented in this class. I’m going to be the one doing the presentation there and I would really love to see you.

Also coming this weekend is a holiday weekend. MLK Day is on Monday. Even though it’s a holiday weekend and banks are closed, our office is open. I’m fully available. Taking phone calls, texts. If you want to go through a strategic buyer consultation with us, you want to learn how to compete with cash offers? You want to learn how to close in 21 days or less? Give me a call or text me on my cell phone. I would love to talk with you and share with you how we can help you. Happy Friday. Have a great day.