Friday Market Update: May 20th 2022 with BRIAN MANNING

Happy Friday! Brian Manning here with the weekly update. Let’s get right to it.

Monday this week was a relatively quiet news day. Not a lot to talk about there. Tuesday this week we get some feedback from the NAHB. That’s the National Association of Homes Builders. This was on builder sentiment that is on the housing market index. And this kind of gives good real-time feedback from home builders. This reading came back at 69.

Expectations that it would really come back at a 75. So, a little bit lower than expectations. This is measured on a gauge of 1 to 100. Anything above 50 is actually considered expansion So, if we’re at 69, that’s still a pretty good number, although lower than expectations. We also got retail sales. Retail sales were really strong for the month of April. And then, it’s actually surprised a lot of people. Just looking at, you know, the economy, being in the face of inflation, to see really strong retail sales was a little shocking but also good to see.

Wednesday this week, we’ve got housing starts. So, this is new construction housing starts. The media had a field day with this. We’re going to look at a couple of charts here in a minute. Housing starts came back up being at 4% year-over-year. Expectations were a little bit higher and that’s still not a bad number. You know, a lot of builders right now still experiencing challenges with supply chain issues. So, not surprised to see that number down a little bit.

We also got some feedback from CoreLogic. They give us information on the rental market. So, on a year-over-year basis, the blended rental rate is up 14%. So… blended rate means that’s a combination of if you want to go rent a new place, how much are the rents there up a year-over-year and if you have a lease renewing, how much are your rents going up there on a year-over-year basis. So… A blended rate of 14% is actually a really high number.

Thursday this week, we got existing home sales. Existing home sales really measure 90% of the housing market. This is for the month of April. This is probably people depending on where you are in the country shopping for a home. In February, March, or the beginning of April, existing home sales were down 2.4% on a month-over-month basis or 5.9% year-over-year. Median home prices were still up. Average time from listing the contract was 17 days. And pace of sale is still better than every year since 2008. So, the media definitely doing as much as they can to put a negative spin on this.

I just want to show you something. Here a couple of items really quick just to give you some feedback on what’s happening in the market. So… This is going to show us… This is existing home sales. So, this goes back to 98, 99. This is what we’re at right now, you know, coming through Covid. We had a big decline during lockdown then you had this giant Covid bump after lockdown and of course, there’s going to be some natural cooling there which is… I think it’s really good to see. We’ve all been hoping to see a little bit of a cooling in the housing market but, you know, if we look at this average, the black line that we have, you know, as you reclined out of the recession after the 08 housing crisis, you look every single year, you know, up, up, up, up, up and we’re still probably what I would say in a really good position compared to all the prior years. So, I wouldn’t say existing home sales are as negative as the media makes it and then some feedback on inventory.

So, this just shows inventory in the housing market back from around 2012. And if you look at this every single year, you have this increase of inventory. It’s called the spring home-buying season. Oh, my gosh! This is amazing. It happens every year. And you look at the media right now and they’re just saying, oh, my gosh, inventory is going up. Is the housing market crashing? Well, every single year you get a bump up in inventory. All of us in this industry have been hoping for a bump up in inventory because there just haven’t been enough homes for sale.

So, you know, I would definitely say, you got to watch what the media says and how negative they are because they’re only looking at kind of very small pieces and when they say existing home sales are, you know, problematic but they’re not really looking at the true inventory story, I wouldn’t say that they’re really portraying the picture very accurately but not surprised because that’s what the media does.

I’m around on the weekend. If you have any questions, let me know. If you want to go through, our strategic buyer consultation, give me a call or text me on my cell phone. Happy Friday. Have a great day.