Friday Market Update: Week of July 24th

Happy Friday, Brian Manning here with the weekly update, let’s get right to it. We got all kinds of stuff to talk about this week. So, Monday this week Harvard had published a study and they said that they expect about 110,000 small businesses to never re-open again which is just a crazy number, so a small business is categorized as a business with less than 500 employees so 110,000 which is just crazy to see the ripple effect and impact of what’s going on right now.

Tuesday this week, some unemployment information. So, 68% of people earning unemployment with the additional kicker they get on top, are earning more on unemployment than they are if they went back to work so that’s a strong on its own, to see businesses starting to open up and potentially people that don’t want to go back to work because they earn more on unemployment, so why potentially put themselves in a risky situation when they can earn more at home? It’s really tough, but 68% which is a staggering number.

Wednesdays we got existing home sales. Existing home sales for the month of June were up 21% which is a really staggering number. It’s coming off a really poor May, so June we just certainly saw a very strong and robust housing market. Also, what I thought was really good to see was that of June home buyers, 35% were made up of first-time home buyers. You know, for quite a long time, we’ve been seeing first-time home buyers in the 31%, 32%, maybe 33% range so really good to see younger people and millennial generation getting out there and buying homes, so 35% made up of all purchase transactions which is really great.

Also, we had Freddie Mac say that they anticipate that right now, about 60% of all mortgages could benefit from a refinance so refinance would be if your rate dropped by 0.5% or more. What’s incredible is that totals about $11.5 trillion in available refinance transactions floating around out there. I mean, this year you know, you might see $1-$1.5 trillion in refinance transactions take place, so there’s still a tremendous amount of people out there that can reap the rewards and the benefits of refinancing.

Also, every Wednesday of every week we get the MBA Mortgage Bankers Association giving us information on application and purchase applications on a year-over-year basis are up 19% right now, so still seeing a really strong purchase market which is great.

Thursday, and every Thursday, we talk about employment, so for initial jobless claims, this is new people filing for unemployment. We had 1.4 million new people file for unemployment and another million filing for the pandemic assistance as well. So, pandemic unemployment assistance is unemployment for people that usually wouldn’t be able to get unemployment, so independent contractors, gate workers, self-employed type people etc. So, right now, with standard unemployment and pandemic assistance, about 31.8 million people are receiving unemployment, so that’s really incredible because there was 160 million people in the labor force and 31.8 million receiving some variation of unemployment, whether it’s PPE, pandemic assistance, regular unemployment, etc. so unemployment rate right now is really functioning at around 20% which is just a really crazy number.

Also, today we got new home sales. So, new home sales are for new construction transactions, administers signed contracts for the month of June and new home sales were up 14% and May was revised higher as well. What also is amazing is for new home sales on a year-over-year basis is up 7%. So, again, housing still holding really strong. One thing to note about new home sales is that on average, new home sales have been signing contracts in the $300,000-$400,000 range and right now, the majority of the signed contracts are in the $200,000-$300,000 range, so
we’re seeing a little bit lower price range on the new home sales.

Overall, mortgage rates are amazing. They are still at historic lows, we are walking in people at just ridiculous interest rates right now. So if you’re interested in buying or refinancing, give us a call, we’d love to help you in any way we can.

I’m around all weekend, cellphone is the best way to reach me over the weekend, call me or text me. Happy Friday, hope you have a great day!