Friday Market Update: Week of July 2nd

Happy Friday! Brian Manning here with your Thursday update because we’re going into a holiday weekend!

So, first of all, I hope everyone has an amazing 4th of July weekend and really gets to enjoy some time off, markets will close early today at 2PM Eastern Time and also what’s amazing is that we’re halfway through the year, I don’t even know how 4th of July is here, it’s been crazy weird year as it is and half of it just seems to have just like slipped away, it’s unbelievable. Let’s see, we got a lot to talk about this week. So, Tuesday is when we got Case Shiller, Case-Shiller housing report measures home appreciation and Case-Shiller national average of appreciation is up 4.7% it’s really through the month of April, they also have a 20-city index that measures appreciation in the top 20 cities in the United States of America, and those are up 4%. So, just keep in mind this is all, kind-of like pre-COVID data, so we’re going to see what happens in the future, but that’s Case-Shiller has going on for right now.

Also, this week, we get pending home sales, pending home sales came backing a lot of media and blockbuster report of being up 44%, but don’t forget pending home sales in March and April were each down 20%, each month so really good to see a strong Pending home sales come back, but up 44% now, unfortunately doesn’t make up for the 2 significantly down months that we had there as well. Also, first week of every month we got employment reports and I can’t believe another month has gone by.

First Wednesday of every month we get ADP, so ADP is the largest provider of private payrolls expectations for ADP was that 2.5 million jobs would be created created last month and ADP came back and said that 2.3 million jobs were created, so in line with expectations and then what’s insane is that prior month revision was for 6 million jobs added, I mean how do you blur a report like that? How do you not figure out when you first put out these numbers that, “Oh, I just missed 6 million people getting hired”, so crazy to see but that’s your ADP data.

MBA applications, we get every Wednesday as well, we’ve been talking about that a lot and on a week-over-week basis mortgage applications for new purchases are down 1%
which is not horrible because if you look at a year-over-year basis, purchase applications for new mortgages are up 15% so still, really solid numbers here. And then today, we get the BLS. So, normally you get the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report on the first Friday of the month, but since everything is closed for tomorrow, we get it today for Thursday. So, analysts expectations on the BLS were all over the place, they expected anywhere from a million to 7 million new jobs to be created on the month of June and the BLS came out and said there was 4.8 million jobs created for the month of June. I don’t even know where they get these numbers, I’m not sure how this is an accurate number because what’s really important that we look at every single week on Thursday as well is continuing jobless claims. So, continuing claims are people that are continuing on a week-over-week basis making a continual unemployment filings. So, continual claims are still at 19 million people right now and the fact is, the month of May we’ve been hovering in this 19-20 million weekly continual claims of unemployment, so if no one is really, backing off of continuing claims we’re still at 19 million people filing for continual unemployment claims. How is that possible when we added almost 5 million new jobs? Doesn’t make total sense to me. Maybe it’s people that are on PPP going back to work part time? I’m not really sure but I have to tell you I’m not really confident in these numbers.

Let’s see… I will be around all weekend 4th of July weekend, I’ll just be hanging out. If you have any questions, let me know if you have any clients that need to get pre-approved, give me a call on my cell phone, text me I love to help you in any way I can.

Happy Friday, hope you have a great day.