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Friday Market Update: Week of July 31st

Happy Friday, Brian Manning here with the weekly update. Let’s get right to it, so let’s see.

Monday this week, we got Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller is probably the best in reporting appreciation and the most reliable. And Monday, Case-Shiller says that on a year-over-year basis as May of 2019 to May of 2020, on a national basis home appreciation is up 4.5%. So certainly housing has remained strong through all of this, housing is looking really good for the future. I know from our own experience with our buyers in the marketplace right now, that there’s just not enough inventory. And inventory levels are low, there’s a lot of qualified buyers, offers that are going in or competing in multiple offers situations, selling for both list-price. It’s just really strong to see what’s going on out there.

Wednesday this week we get pending home sales, so for the month of June Blockbuster report, pending home sales were up 16.6%. On a year-over-year basis pending home sales up 6.3% so still playing into just a really strong housing market, just so good to see. Thursday this week we also got GDP, GDP was down 33%, the lowest report ever on record. Not surprising, we shut down an economy on a national basis for something like COVID, but really it’s just still a stinker of a report.

Also every Thursday we got unemployment information, so we’re at 1.4 million new people file for unemployment claims. Right now, if you look across the United States, there are 30.2 million people receiving some version of unemployment which is unbelievable, so if you take 160 million which is the amount of people in the workforce and you divide it by 30.2 million people that are receiving unemployment, our unemployment rate right now is floating at around 19% which is really crazy. That’s just such a high unemployment rate, you know, not long ago before this whole COVID thing we were seeing unemployment rates in about the 200,000 mark. So you’re at 19.2 million 200,000 it’s crazy to still see the continual ripple effects of what’s happening with COVID.

Then we get PCE today. So this is the Federal Reserve’s Favor Gauge of… Inflation, excuse me. PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditure. And PCE if you look at the quarter rates, so the quarter rates drips out the volatile factors of food and energy because those costs are very volatile. If you strip those out and you look at just what’s called the quarter rate which is primarily also what the Federal Reserve looks at, the quarter rate is down to 9/10th of a percent. The Federal Reserve looks at this and they want to see

inflation not exceeding 2%. So when you start to see inflation hit that 2% mark that’s when the Federal Reserve starts to raise rates because they want to cool inflation, well at being down 9/10th of a percent the Federal Reserve basically has a green light to continue with all of their monitory policies that they have in place right now, to continue this for the economy which means we’re just going to see low rates for a very long time.

I’m around all weekend, if you have any questions – let me know. If you have any buyers that you want pre-approved certainly the best evenings or weekends, call my cell phone, text me. I would love to help you in any way I can. We’re always around, Happy Friday, have a great day!

 

 

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