Media Hype vs Market Reality
Guesswork is shaping your rate
Happy Friday! Brian Manning here with your weekly market update.
Let’s dive right in.
🏠 Redfin’s Market Misfire
This week started off with a headline-grabbing report from Redfin claiming there are 500,000 more sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market. But here’s the problem: it’s mostly guesswork.
Redfin’s assumption is that there are 1.94 million sellers in the market. Reality check?
- There are only 1.45 million active sellers nationwide.
- Of those, 500,000 homes are already under contract, leaving just 960,000 active listings.
So… Redfin overshot by nearly a million homes.
Even worse, the number of buyers is pure speculation—we don’t track buyers like we track listings. This is a prime example of misleading data creating confusion in the marketplace.
📉 ADP Jobs Report: Big Miss
Wednesday brought the latest employment numbers from ADP. Expectations were for 115,000 new jobs in May. The actual number?
Just 37,000 jobs.
That’s a significant miss, and it aligns with what we’ve been saying:
The labor market isn’t as strong as the Fed claims.
ADP, the largest private payroll provider in the U.S., has a clearer view of the job landscape than anyone—so this number matters.
📊 Inflation: Measured by Guesswork?
Thursday’s article from the Wall Street Journal revealed something shocking:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)—the same agency that provides the data the Fed uses to make rate decisions—staffs its inflation data collectors with:
- A minimum age of 16
- A valid driver’s license
That’s it. That’s the bar.
On top of that, they’re facing a hiring freeze, meaning less boots on the ground and more reliance on assumptions. Yes, the inflation data impacting your mortgage rate is being assembled by under-resourced teams doing the best they can—but still just guessing.
It’s not a knock on the individuals—it’s a systemic issue. But it’s beyond concerning when these numbers drive interest rate policy.
The Bottom Line:
There’s a lot of noise out there. Between media exaggeration, missed employment targets, and questionable data collection at the government level, it’s more important than ever to know what’s real.
We’re here all weekend, 8am to 8pm, to answer your questions or help you get pre-approved.
📣 Realtors:
Don’t miss our “Winning in a Buyer’s Market” class series!
- We just wrapped one in Colorado Springs
- Next week: Denver at The Capital Grille (almost sold out!)
- Following week: Boulder
RSVP now—these always fill up fast!
Have a great weekend,
Brian Manning
Need Mortgage Help This Weekend?
I’m available 7 days a week, 8 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Whether you’re a buyer, seller, or just exploring your options, feel free to reach out.
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Brian@BrianManningTeam.com
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