Finally, the Truth on Job Data
Real numbers shift mortgage rate outlook
Happy Friday! Brian Manning here with your weekly market update — and wow, what a week it’s been.
We’re kicking things off with a jam-packed economic lineup, so let’s get right to the highlights.
🚨 Employment Reports: ADP vs. BLS
This was the first week of the month, which means we got both the ADP and BLS employment reports.
- ADP (Wednesday): Expected 80,000 new jobs, reported 104,000. Pretty close to forecast.
- BLS (Friday): Finally — for the first time in months — we got accurate numbers. The July report showed just 73,000 jobs created, far lower than previous estimates.
But here’s the kicker:
🔁 Massive Revisions from May & June
- May: Originally 244,000 jobs → revised to 19,000
- June: Originally 147,000 jobs → revised to 14,000
These inflated reports caused markets to overreact, driving mortgage rates up by 0.50%–0.75%. The truth? The job market wasn’t nearly as strong as reported.
🧠 Fed Decisions: Disconnect?
Wednesday also brought the conclusion of the Federal Reserve meeting. Jerome Powell held rates steady, claiming the labor market is strong and inflation remains a concern. But two Fed governors — Waller and Bowman — dissented for the first time in 33 years. They called for rate cuts now, arguing the inflation math doesn’t add up, especially if you strip out temporary tariff impacts.
📉 PCE Report: Inflation is Cooling
Also Wednesday, we got the PCE report, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge:
- Headline and core inflation up just 0.3%
- Stripping out volatile items, real consumer costs rose only 0.11%
So… if inflation is under control, job growth is weak, and two Fed members want cuts — why aren’t we adjusting faster?
📉 Mortgage Rates Finally React
With Friday’s revised BLS data, mortgage markets finally responded positively. Rates moved lower, reflecting the more accurate state of the economy.
🎓 Realtor Luncheons & New Class Launch
We’re wrapping up our last two Realtor luncheons in the Winning in Today’s Market series.
Starting in September, we’re launching a new class: Countering Objections. It’s going to be 🔥.
🎙️ Podcast Launch: Balance in Motion
This week we dropped the first live episode of our new podcast! I sat down with Little John, one of Denver’s top concert promoters. The goal? To unpack what flow looks like in high-performance lives — because let’s face it, balance is BS, but flow is real. Click here to watch our most recent episode.
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— Brian Manning
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