Fed Blind to Reality
Happy Friday, Brian Manning here with this week’s housing market update. Let’s dive into the latest on home appreciation, pending sales, jobs data, and how the government shutdown could impact mortgages.
Home Appreciation Slows Slightly
On Tuesday, two major housing reports showed cooling trends:
- Case-Shiller Index: annual appreciation slowed from 1.9% to 1.7%
- FHFA Index: appreciation dipped from 2.7% to 2.6%
Key takeaway: While home values are still rising, higher mortgage rates over the last few years are slowing the pace of growth.
Pending Home Sales Show Strength
Wednesday delivered good news. Pending home sales (signed contracts) were expected to remain flat but instead jumped 4% month-over-month.
Why it matters: Lower mortgage rates in recent weeks are helping buyers re-enter the market, boosting activity.
Jobs Report Sends Warning Signs
Employment data turned negative:
- ADP Report (September): Instead of gaining 50,000 jobs, the U.S. lost 32,000
- ADP has now shown three out of the last four months with negative job growth
Normally, we’d compare this with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report, but due to the government shutdown, that data wasn’t released.
Key takeaway: The labor market is weakening, raising doubts about the Federal Reserve’s claim that “employment is strong” and rate cuts aren’t needed.
Government Shutdown Adds Mortgage Uncertainty
The shutdown delays critical reports and may disrupt federal housing agencies. This could affect:
- FHFA
- HUD
- VA loans
- USDA loans
- Flood insurance programs
Impact: Any extended shutdown creates uncertainty in the mortgage process and could slow down approvals and closings.
Realtor Events: Winning with Objections
This week we hosted another successful Winning with Objections Realtor luncheon in Boulder. Next week, we’ll be at Capital Grille in Denver, followed by sessions in South and West Denver.
If you’re a Realtor, RSVP today — we’d love to have you at an upcoming event.
Fall Fiesta is Almost Here 🎉
Mark your calendars for Thursday, November 13th at Roots Music Project in Boulder.
The evening will feature:
- Live music
- Open bar
- All-you-can-eat tacos from McDevitt Taco Supply
- Fundraising for Community Food Share
Why it matters: Even in one of the wealthiest counties in the U.S., food insecurity is real. This event is about raising money, building community, and having a great time.
Final Thoughts
The housing market is holding steady despite slower appreciation. Pending sales are improving, but the labor market is flashing red, and the government shutdown only adds more uncertainty.
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Questions? Concerns? Ready to get started with my strategic buyer consultation?
Call me any day of the week, Monday- Sunday to get connected & learn about your options.
It’s never too soon to understand what you can afford!
303-500-3839
Brian@BrianManningTeam.com
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