Consumer Price Index Softens Slightly
Happy Friday — Brian Manning here with your weekly market update.
This week has been unusually quiet because of the ongoing government shutdown. Most of the economic data we rely on each week comes from government agencies, and many reports have been delayed.
The one exception was today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report — released only because it’s needed to calculate Social Security cost-of-living adjustments. Let’s break down what we learned.
CPI: Inflation Slows Slightly
The headline CPI for September came in slightly below expectations, which is great news for inflation watchers.
- Month-over-month: up 0.3%
- Year-over-year: up from 2.9% to 3.0% (expected 3.1%)
Meanwhile, core inflation — which strips out volatile food and energy costs — moved from 3.0% to 3.1% year-over-year, rising 0.2% month-over-month.
This softer reading is a small but positive sign that inflation is continuing to cool.
The “Owner’s Equivalent Rent” Problem
One of the biggest factors in the CPI calculation is something called Owner’s Equivalent Rent (OER) — a metric that estimates what homeowners think their house would rent for, unfurnished and without utilities.
Here’s the crazy part: OER makes up 33% of the entire CPI report.
As a mortgage lender of 27 years, I can tell you — even I have no idea what my house would rent for under those conditions. Yet this metric plays a massive role in shaping the national inflation picture.
The good news is that OER rose only 0.14% this month — a modest increase that helped keep overall inflation in check.
Looking Ahead
Until the government reopens, we won’t see much new economic data. But today’s CPI release provides a glimpse of stability — a small win in an otherwise quiet week.
Community Spotlight: Fall Fiesta Returns November 13
Mark your calendars! Our annual Fall Fiesta is coming up on Thursday, November 13, and it’s shaping up to be our best one yet.
Join us for an evening of live music, great food, and community connection — all to benefit Community Food Share, which supports families facing food insecurity in Boulder and Broomfield Counties.
These are two of the wealthiest counties in the country, yet many families still struggle with basic needs. Let’s come together to make an impact.
Come for the fun, stay for the purpose — and help us raise funds for an amazing local cause.
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