Friday Market Update: July 7th 2023

Home Values Are Still Holding Strong! 

Happy Friday! Brian Manning here with the weekly update.

Let’s get right to it. So… Monday this week really was a relatively quiet news day because we had the Fourth on Tuesday, so markets closed early on Monday. A lot of people took time off of work, so really not a lot to talk about there.

Tuesday, everything was closed. I hope everybody had a wonderful Fourth. Wednesday, we got the Fed minutes. So, this is minutes from their last Fed meeting. And this kind of reveals to us what the Federal Reserve is thinking, what the voting members are really planning on, and what they’re wanting to do going forward. What’s interesting is that most Fed voting members think there’s two more rate hikes that are needed, and only two think that we’re in a good spot right now and we should really sit back and wait and see what happens.

What’s interesting is that they’re starting to make comments that they think that the housing market has bottomed out. I don’t know what kind of data they’re looking at. If you look at the housing market, the housing market bottomed out in December of last year, January of this year, and now you’re seeing the market hold really strong. So… Still just shows me that the Federal Reserve is just kind of behind on what they’re thinking. Makes me nervous about what they’re going to do going forward, but we’ll have to wait and see what happens.

Thursday this week, and we get… First Thursday of every month… Actually, it’s normally usually the first Wednesday of every month, but since we had a holiday that’s got moved to the first Thursday is the ADP Report. So, the beginning of every month, we get employment report based on what happened with new hires and unemployment in the prior months. This is for the month of July.

So, Thursday, we got the ADP report. ADP is the largest provider of private payrolls in the US. They said in the month of June, we had 497,000 new hires. So, of course, markets didn’t like that because the Federal Reserve is looking at this potentially, and they’re trying to make decisions on what they’re going to do with rate hikes going forward. And if they think that employment is just continuing to be very strong and very robust, then it kind of keeps them down the path of hiking rates. So, if you look at the financial marketplace and the landscape that we’re in on.

Thursday this week, mortgage rates worsened, stock markets didn’t do well. Everyone kind of freaked out because of that. Then today, first Friday of every month, we get the BLS Report. This stands for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. BLS Report also for the month of June, said we had 209,000 jobs were created. Expectations were 240,000 jobs to be created. So… I wouldn’t say it was a miss, but it was definitely below expectations.

What’s interesting, though, is that of this, 133,000 jobs that were created were in government work, healthcare, and education. So… I look at this and I look at what’s happening with the job market. Where are we heading? Is there continued expansion in the marketplace? And if you look at the three main sectors that had a majority of the hiring, government, healthcare, education, no matter what happens with the US economy, there’s always going to be hiring in government, healthcare, and education, right? Because government’s going to keep going on. People are going to keep getting sick, so healthcare is going to keep hiring, and education is going to keep going because population keeps growing.

So… Those sectors alone, of the 209,000 jobs that were created, they’ve made up 133,000 of the jobs that were created. So, if you look at that, it doesn’t feel like such a strong jobs report, considering those three sectors and the requirement for them to be there for us going forward.

Also, a large percentage of the report was part-time employees. And part-time employees are either people that are phasing out into retirement, or they want to get a full-time job and they can’t get it. There are multiple reasons why someone would be a part-time employee. So, if we look at the BLS report, it probably was not as strong of a report as one would think, especially compared to ADP. There’s a stark contrast between the two.

I’m around all weekend. If you want to learn how we’re closing purchase transactions in ten days, start to finish, give me a call. If you still want to buy a home and close in July, we can help you.

Happy Friday. Hope you have a great day.



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