Real Estate Reality Check
Context matters—don’t trust clickbait charts
Happy Friday — Brian Manning here with your latest market update! This week brought a wave of headlines about the Federal Reserve, real estate transactions, inventory levels, and interest rates. As always, let’s cut through the noise and take a real look at what’s happening.
Federal Reserve: Too Slow Again?
Early in the week, the focus was on the Federal Reserve.
A growing number of experts believe the Fed is again acting too slowly—this time in cutting interest rates.
Historically, the Fed maintained quantitative easing too long during COVID and was slow to start hiking rates. Now, with many signs of recessionary pressure appearing, there’s concern they may again be waiting too long to lower rates.
The market consensus? The Fed should act sooner rather than later.
Redfin’s “Contracts Falling Through” Report
Redfin reported that 13% of all real estate contracts fell through in March.
The media jumped on this as a negative sign — but here’s the real story:
If you look at historical data dating back to 2017, the average rate of contracts falling through was around 11–12%.
So yes, 13% is slightly higher — but a 2% increase is hardly cause for alarm.
Always be cautious about scary headlines without full context.
Seller Concessions Are Rising — But That’s Normal
Another media headline this week: seller concessions are increasing.
Again, context matters.
During the COVID buying frenzy, concessions hit an all-time low. But if you remove those extraordinary years, today’s concession levels are right in line—or only slightly higher—than historic norms.
The market is simply returning to normal conditions.
New Home Sales: Strength in New Construction
New home sales were a bright spot this week, rising 7.4%.
Inventory of fully completed new homes remains tight at just two months of supply.
Although there are more homes in construction (measured through permits and starts), the number of finished homes available for immediate sale remains very low—supporting stable pricing for new construction.
Existing Home Sales: Why the Dip?
Existing home sales dropped 5.9%, but there’s an important detail:
The West Coast — a large part of the national housing market — experienced massive wildfires, which significantly impacted the numbers.
Without the fires, the national decline would likely have been much less dramatic. Again, context is key.
Inventory Is Up — But Still Historically Normal
Inventory headlines also caused some concern this week, with news outlets screaming about a 20% increase in housing inventory.
Here’s the reality:
Every spring, inventory rises as sellers list their homes.
Looking at 26 years of historical data, this year’s increase is completely normal compared to long-term seasonal patterns.
Yes, inventory is higher than the ultra-low COVID years, but by historical standards, we’re right where we should be.
Looking Ahead
Today, Friday, was a relatively quiet news day.
All eyes are now on next week, which will bring key reports on GDP growth, employment, and more — all of which could have a meaningful impact on mortgage rates.
It’s shaping up to be a very market-moving week ahead.
________________________________________________________________________________
Questions? Concerns? Ready to get started with my strategic buyer consultation?
Call me any day of the week, Monday- Sunday to get connected & learn about your options.
It’s never too soon to understand what you can afford!
303-500-3839
Brian@BrianManningTeam.com
LICENSED TO SERVE YOU IN:
- Colorado
- California
- Arizona
- Florida
- Wyoming
Oh yeah, want to get my weekly Friday Market Update straight in your inbox?? Join our mailing list!
Email me directly at Brian@BrianManningTeam.com