Fed Signals Are Shifting
Could this be the turning point for rates?
Happy Thursday! Yes, I know — this is usually a Friday update, but Allison from our marketing team is out tomorrow, and I fully admit I’m not creative enough to go solo. So we’re rolling with a Thursday edition this week.
Let’s get into it.
Federal Reserve Shakeup
Last Friday, we learned that Fed Governor Kugler is stepping down to return to teaching. This opens up a seat on the Fed and possibly gives us a preview of who could become the next Fed Chair, with Jerome Powell’s term ending in May 2026. This change is worth watching closely — the incoming replacement could shape the Fed’s next big moves.
Truflation Says Inflation is in Check
According to Truflation, a platform that strips out volatile and hard-to-control expenses like aircrafts and health insurance, inflation is currently at 2.04%. That’s basically the Fed’s target of 2%. So why aren’t rates being cut yet? Good question. It’s something we’re all watching.
BLS Director Fired
On Monday, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was fired. While I’ve long pointed out the BLS reports can be inaccurate, the firing was a surprise. Employment reports often get big revisions after the fact, which can lead to misleading market reactions. While change may be needed, the way it happened didn’t sit well with many.
Inventory Climbing
On Tuesday, Realtor.com reported that national housing inventory rose 2.5% month-over-month, and is now up 25% year-over-year. Colorado inventory alone is up 20%, though we’re still 11% below pre-pandemic national levels. More inventory could mean more opportunity for buyers.
More Fed Governors Want Rate Cuts
On Wednesday, Fed Governors Neel Kashkari and Mary Daly both publicly stated it’s time to start cutting rates. That’s in direct contrast to Jerome Powell, who insists the economy is strong. With internal dissent growing, we might finally be nearing a shift in policy.
Bank of England Cuts Again
The Bank of England just cut its rate by another 0.25%, and Europe’s rates are now down to 2.15%. Most other countries are already cutting, but the U.S. remains slow to act. Fingers crossed we see movement at the September Fed meeting.
Unemployment Claims Rising
Today’s data shows continuing jobless claims increased again, up by 35,000 — the highest level since 2021. More people are staying unemployed for longer, and that’s a signal the economy isn’t as strong as it looks on paper.
Bottom Line
Inflation is tame. Jobless claims are up. Inventory is rising. The Fed is under pressure. If you’re a buyer or considering refinancing, these are the moments to watch. A rate cut could be around the corner.
As always, I’m available seven days a week, 8 AM to 8 PM. Call, text, or email if you have questions about your buying or refinancing options.
📣 Realtors:
If your listings aren’t selling or you’re struggling to get buyers to take action, don’t miss our final two “Winning in Today’s Market” luncheons.
Wednesday 8/13 – Colorado Springs (Mackenzie’s Chophouse)
Thursday 8/14 – Denver South (Angelo’s Taverna)
Free lunch. Great insights. Game-changing strategies.
This is the final time we’re offering this class — see you there. drops.
— Brian Manning
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