Jobs Data Doesn’t Add
Conflicting job reports spark market confusion
Happy Thursday — that’s right, not Friday — because it’s 4th of July weekend! Just a quick reminder: we’re fully operational all weekend long, including the 4th, from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. If you need a pre-approval or have questions, I’m here and ready to help.
Let’s jump into this week’s news:
🔹 Monday: Mortgage Delinquencies Overblown
Diana Olek was on CNBC talking about rising mortgage delinquencies. But when we looked closer:
- 30- to 90-day late payments: Flat, no real change.
- 90+ day delinquencies: Actually declined.
The media loves a negative headline — but the data doesn’t support the story. Always watch out for clickbait.
🔹 Tuesday: Jerome Powell on Standby
Fed Chair Jerome Powell held a press conference.
He was asked about a possible rate cut in July, and his response?
“We’re not sure yet.”
He expressed concern about the impact of tariffs on inflation and signaled a cautious, wait-and-see stance for now.
🔹 Wednesday: ADP Jobs Report
ADP — the largest private payroll provider — reported 33,000 jobs lost in June. That’s a significant drop and raises red flags.
🔹 Thursday: BLS Disagrees
On the flip side, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported 147,000 jobs gained in June.
That’s a difference of 180,000 jobs between two major sources.
Now, I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but…
How does ADP show job losses while BLS shows big job gains?
Something isn’t lining up — and that creates a lot of uncertainty.
🎇 Wrapping up
We’ll keep watching the data, but the disconnect between reports adds more noise to an already uncertain market.
In the meantime — I’m around all weekend, including the 4th. If you need anything, I’ve got you covered.
Wishing everyone an amazing Independence Day!
— Brian Manning
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