Labor Data Whiffs Again
Missed job targets keep pressure on buyers
Happy Friday — Brian Manning here with your weekly market update. This week brought a flood of economic data: job reports, inflation numbers, and housing indicators. Some of it looked good on the surface—but a closer look tells a different story. Let’s break it all down.
JOLTS Report: Job Openings Shrinking
We started the week with the JOLTS report—short for Job Openings and Labor Turnover.
For March, job openings dropped by 300,000, and February was revised down another 100,000. That’s a total drop of 400,000 job openings over two months.
This is significant. It shows softening in the labor market, and it’s exactly the kind of data the Federal Reserve should be paying close attention to—especially as they consider the timing of potential rate cuts.
ADP Report: Major Miss on Private Payrolls
On Wednesday, we got the ADP employment report—the largest tracker of private payrolls in the U.S.
Expectations were for 115,000 new jobs. The actual number? Just 62,000. That’s a huge miss.
This shows that hiring in April wasn’t nearly as strong as forecasted—another sign of a cooling labor market.
PCE Inflation: Finally Moving Lower
Also on Wednesday, we saw some good news:
The PCE index—the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation—dropped from 2.69% to 2.29%.
This is a major step in the right direction. Lower inflation is typically great news for mortgage rates. But despite this move, we didn’t see the kind of rate improvement we would normally expect.
Why? Tariff concerns, global uncertainty, and noisy market conditions are overshadowing the data.
Q1 GDP: Negative Growth Signals
The first reading of Q1 GDP came in at -0.3%.
Remember: two negative quarters in a row is the technical definition of a recession. This may be just one data point—but it’s not pointing toward a strong economy.
Pending Home Sales Surge — But the Media’s Silent
Pending home sales were up 6.1%—a clear sign that real estate activity is building.
But where was the media coverage? Nowhere.
When the data is negative, it’s everywhere. When it’s positive? Crickets. This is why it’s so important to look at the actual numbers, not just the headlines.
BLS Jobs Report: Not Adding Up
Friday brought the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) report.
Expectations were for 130,000 new jobs. The headline number was 177,000, which initially looks like a beat.
But here’s the problem: massive downward revisions to prior months.
- February was revised down by 49,000
- March was revised down by 43,000
It’s almost like saying, “Oops, we were wrong by 90,000 jobs—but hey, look at this shiny new number!”
These backward revisions get buried in the data and don’t move the markets, even though they should. If the BLS had reported it correctly the first time, this month’s report likely would’ve been viewed as a miss—good for rates, but that impact gets lost.
What’s the Bottom Line?
We’re seeing mixed signals:
- Inflation is moving lower
- Job openings are shrinking
- Private payrolls are missing targets
- Real estate activity is rising
- GDP is in the red
And yet, mortgage rates are stuck because headline numbers—like the BLS report—don’t tell the full story.
I’m calling it now: we’re likely to see more job revisions in the coming months. But until then, the market stays cautious.
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