Cracks in Job Data
Happy Friday! Let’s take a look at what moved the markets this week.
After a quiet start with Labor Day and minimal news on Tuesday, things picked up mid-week. Wednesday brought the JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey). In 2022, openings were reported at 12 million, though inflated due to duplicate postings across multiple states. Today that number has dropped to 7.2 million—a significant decline, even if the data isn’t perfectly accurate.
Thursday, ADP—the largest private payroll provider—reported only 54,000 new jobs created in August, well below the 75,000 expected. That pointed to continued labor market weakness.
But Friday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report really turned heads. Expectations were for 75,000 jobs created, already a soft number. Instead, only 22,000 jobs were added nationwide, and most were in healthcare. Even more concerning, prior months were heavily revised downward. June was initially reported as 147,000 jobs gained (a “strong” report that caused mortgage rates to spike higher at the time). Now, final revisions show June actually had 13,000 job losses. That’s a massive swing, and homeowners paid the price with higher interest rates based on faulty data.
These constant revisions highlight the frustration of a market that reacts instantly to numbers that may not hold up. But the latest weakness is finally improving bonds and bringing mortgage rates down.
Other cracks are showing as well: unemployment sits at 4.3% and 1.3 million Americans are working part-time while searching for full-time employment. Taken together, this paints a picture of a softening labor market—likely the kind of evidence the Federal Reserve needs to start cutting rates.
We’ll have to wait and see how the Fed responds, but momentum is building for change.
For Realtors:
We just launched our new class, Winning with Objections. Our first session in Littleton was a full house, and next week we’ll be in Boulder and Denver. Make sure to RSVP!
Save the Date – Fall Fiesta:
Our 11th Annual Fall Fiesta is happening Thursday, November 13th at Roots Music Project. Join us for live music, an open bar, and all-you-can-eat McDevitt tacos. Most importantly, we’ll be raising funds for Community Food Share, a local nonprofit serving Boulder County. This event is our way of saying thank you to clients, friends, and partners. We can’t wait to see you there.
Wishing you a great weekend,
Brian Manning
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